GTR — Navigating the Chaos

The world seems to have fully embraced the old curse over the last couple of years. We do, indeed, live in interesting times. We are currently living through one of the most chaotic periods in the modern era and in recent memory. The previous status quo seems to be coming quickly to an end, only to be replaced by something significantly less stable.

Chaos, the New Normal

Consider the Ukrainian War, for example. Several wars have been waged in Europe since World War II, including the Balkan wars of the 1990s. According to a list of conflicts in Europe on Wikipedia, there have been 26 wars in Europe during the period of Pax Europaea. That list includes wars between European states, civil wars within European states, wars between a European state and a non-European state that took place within Europe, and global conflicts in which Europe was a theatre of war.

Still, something about the Ukrainian War feels markedly different. It represents the first time that the possibility of a much broader and all-inclusive war could develop. The previous conflicts amounted to little more than proxy wars. While violent and deadly, they did not threaten to pull in the rest of the world or compromise the geopolitical order the way the Ukrainian War does. This war portends the possibility of something different, and much more menacing. With some notable exceptions, few people have any credible predictions for how all of this ends up playing out.

We even see this instability in the economic realm. The BRICS countries, for example, appear to be on the relative ascent. Recent developments in BRICS include the expansion of the New Development Bank, which they launched in 2014 as an alternative to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In 2021, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, and Bangladesh took up shares in the bank. The BRICS, it seems, are building.

Petrodollar Woes

These and other recent developments suggest that the petrodollar system may potentially come to an end, marking the end of Western dominance over global finance. The rise of alternative currencies, such as the petro-yuan, competing CBDCs, and even cryptocurrencies signal, if not the end, certainly a more crowded field. While it is important to note that the situation is complex and constantly evolving, and there is no clear consensus on what the future holds for the petrodollar system.

One thing most people have come to realize, though. The age of relative stability — be it geopolitical, economic, or otherwise — has begun to unravel. It threatens to come to an rather uncomfortable end altogether.

The Digital Asset Market, Briefly

As we head into the end of Q1, the predictable relief rally in the digital asset market appears to already be on the verge of petering out. The broader markets at large look similarly weak, with their respective rallies also coming to an end. We have even had a miniature alt-season, with altcoins enjoying a bit of a melt-up.

The Pepe situation should have been sufficient warning that the short-lived exuberance would come to an end sooner rather than later. Rotation into highly speculative assets (read: shitcoins) typically indicates the end of a bull cycle. This happens even during bullish countertrends within macro bearish trends like we have seen recently. Pepe represents the last gasp, the final attempt to squeeze the last bit of liquidity from retail traders.

All of this should come as no surprise, especially for followers of GTR. Our trading team has been warning of a more persistent period of market weakness for months now, and all that entails. The expected Fed rate hike earlier this week reinforced the generally bearish outlook.

The Fed

As most of us know already, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a rate-hiking campaign aimed at taming inflation and wage growth. Higher interest rates should lead to a more sluggish job market. As hiring cools and unemployment rises, workers will have less leverage to ask for pay increases1. To bring down inflation, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, make no mistake. That may prove difficult to do so without creating higher unemployment.

To put this into a broader context, think of it like this. The Fed will continue to raise rates so long as inflation threatens to head higher or remain stubbornly sticky. However, despite the Great Retirement we see happening amongst the Baby Boom generation, wages have continued to rise. Gen-X and Millenial workers find themselves rotating into those newly vacated positions, causing labor costs to continue to rise. That could mean a dramatic slowdown in growth generally, as the workers at the bottom of the ladder will be the first to suffer.

Wage growth is a particularly thorny issue for the Fed, since faster pay gains have helped workers, particularly those at the bottom. When the Fed raises rates, it increases the cost of credit throughout the economy, making loans more expensive for both businesses and consumers. This, naturally, makes the markets significantly more difficult to navigate.

Steady Hands, Clear Vision

Luckily, however, we have the GTR team on our side. With their steady hand guiding the ship, even the chaos of the market and the unpredictability of future developments make no difference. The market has fallen hard since its peak. We believe it has farther yet to fall. Regardless, though, our team stands ready to take advantage of whatever opportunities the market provides us.

The world may be in chaos, but GTR has always been a steady hand in turbulent times. We will remain a reliable and trustworthy partner for contributors. We are confident in our ability to navigate whatever challenges lie ahead, and we will do so with our contributors’ best interests in mind. We will continue to provide analysis, guidance, and support as we move forward, regardless of what the future holds. With our experienced team of professionals, innovative approach, and steadfast commitment to our community, we are confident that we can weather any storm and emerge even stronger on the other side.

As we saw with the handsome rewards for April, and the expectation of even better rewards moving forward, GTR charts its own course. Our team rewards loyalty, steadfastness, faith, and fidelity in our vision. While the road has proven to be a bit more circuitous than originally intended, the inevitable destination has only been deferred a bit. All good things come to those with the patience to see it through with us. This is only the beginning.

Join Us

If you have just come across our project, or you are not yet a member of our community, we encourage you to join us on this exciting journey. And for our current contributors, stay tuned for more updates and developments as we continue to grow and evolve together.

No better time exists than the present to bridge the divide. Please be sure to stay tuned to our social media outlets moving forward for updates and news of the Ghost Trader project. We invite you to check out our official Ghost Trader website, join us either on Telegram or Discord, follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn, and be sure to check out the podcast found here.